America’s Climate Hokey Cokey - Pager Power
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America’s Climate Hokey Cokey

America’s Climate Hokey Cokey
January 27, 2025 James Plumb

Upon President Trump’s second inauguration he promptly re-withdrew the US from the Paris Climate Agreement, mirroring a move in his first presidency, which was reversed by Joe Biden in 2021. [1]

The United States is the world’s second largest emitter of greenhouse gasses, so their withdrawal from the agreement is once again significant. The US becomes only the fourth UN member state outside of the landmark 2016 agreement, joining Iran, Libya, and Yemen. [2]

climate hokey cokey

Figure 1: President Trump signing Executive Orders. [3]

Before Trump was elected, it was estimated that his policies could increase the US’s emissions by 4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2030, accounting for his publicised intentions to undo crucial climate legislation such as that included in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. [4]

Increases such as this would be significant enough to have consequences not only on the US’s climate targets but also on the global targets to limit global warming to 1.5°C above reference levels. 

The long-term impact of this decision is likely to depend heavily on the extent to which President Trump can implement his policies to “drill, baby, drill” and undo restrictions upon oil and gas extraction. [5] It may also depend upon the results of the next US election in 2028, which Trump will not be eligible to stand in, due to US presidents being restricted to two terms of office. Similarly to Joe Biden after Trump’s first term, the next president could decide to undo Trump’s actions through their own sets of executive orders and legislation.

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References

[1] BBC News, “US rejoins Paris accord: Biden’s first act sets tone for ambitious approach” (19th February 2021), (accessed at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-55732386)

[2] Dharna Noor, “Trump signs order to withdraw US from Paris climate agreement for second time” (20th January 2025), The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/20/trump-executive-order-paris-climate-agreement)

[3] @VP (20th January 2025) from WikiCommons. Accessed on: 27th January 2025. 

[4] Carbon Brief, “Analysis: Trump election win could add 4bn tonnes to US emissions by 2030” (6th March 2024), (accessed at https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-trump-election-win-could-add-4bn-tonnes-to-us-emissions-by-2030/)

[5] Dharna Noor, “Trump vows to ‘unleash’ oil and gas drilling as he rolls back climate rules” (21st January 2025), The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/20/trump-executive-order-energy-emergency)

 

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